The ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles in the UK is four years away, but the motor trade still faces a bumpy ride on the road to greener motoring.
With the high initial cost, concerns about the charging infrastructure and range anxiety stopping many from making the switch, the European Commission has published proposals which would allow manufacturers on the continent to continue selling petrol and diesel cars beyond its 2035 deadline.
The move comes as research shows UK drivers are shifting back towards petrol and diesel cars, as well as major concerns over the global lithium supply and a lack of progress to repair EVs after a crash.
Petrol and diesel ban
The EU hasn’t changed direction on banning new ICE vehicles, but has softened its approach to allow 90% of new cars sold from 2035 to be zero-emission, rather than 100%, Fleet News reports.
The proposals – which also include reducing the commercial vans target from 50% to 40% – would require manufacturers to earn credits for green steel and advanced biofuels and e-fuels.
Despite the plans, industry leaders believe it would be wrong for the UK to follow the EU’s approach.
Chris Heron, secretary general of E-Mobility Europe, told Fleet News: “The UK would be mad to follow our example. It’s the wrong time to take the wind out of EV sales. We know the future of transport is electric; what isn’t settled is who will build that future, and who will win the investment, jobs and industrial advantage that comes with it.”
Driving demand
Uncertainty over the EV landscape has also led to changes in drivers’ attitudes towards the technology, and Fleet News has found that many are shifting back towards petrol and diesel cars.
Research by EY revealed that two-in-five UK new and used car-buyers (41%) are more likely to buy a petrol or diesel car in the next two years and fewer than one-in-five (19%) are interested in buying an EV.
EY discovered that expensive purchase costs were the top factor for 41%. Limited range (36%) and expensive battery replacement (30%) were the next big reasons not to go electric.
And Maria Bengtsson, UK and Ireland mobility leader at EY, said that while the Autumn Budget promised to help reduce the initial cost, she warned: “The new mileage-based tax on EVs could prove a barrier to demand, and with uptake still lagging behind legislation targets, more may need to be done to incentivise and accelerate demand for BEVs among consumers.”
While making the switch to EVs is the main hurdle, current EV owners support the technology, with EY reporting that 84% would buy another EV, despite issues locating charging stations (47%), long wait times (45%) and expensive costs (40%).
Precious commodity
While it might not be a direct concern for drivers and the motor trade, demand for lithium will be a key factor in the global switch to EVs, Fleet News reports.
Research by Kearney and the World Economic Forum predicts that current supplies will only satisfy 35% of the expected 2035 demand, and production will need to more than double to accommodate EVs, data centres and electricity grids.
It warns that delays in grid infrastructure will also slow the rollout of EV charging networks, renewable projects and new digital facilities, and is concerned that changes to the EU’s emissions standards for cars could affect investment and the EV supply chain.
Repairs
As well as uncertainty about lithium supplies, there are concerns not enough is being done to repair to EV batteries following a collision.
Fleet News notes that the new EV Battery Longevity & Post-Accident Outcomes report by aftercare specialist AX has identified gaps in training, diagnostics, legislation and repair processes.
It says these “can cause unnecessary write-offs and inflated insurance premiums while undermining sustainability goals”.
Fleet News warns the issue is that even minor damage to a lithium-ion battery can cause “significant safety concerns and costly replacements” because battery packs can make up half of an EV’s total value.
It also found that the high-voltage batteries “introduce new challenges for many recovery operators, insurers and repairers, which leads to precautionary write-offs instead of repair or reuse.
AX is calling for national standards that will create a safe, repair-first environment for EVs, which will ease pressure on demand for replacement components, such as lithium-ion batteries.
EV future
As experts agree, the future of transport will be electric. The issue for many is the timescale in which they can afford to make sustainable changes. The EU’s softening of its 2035 deadline should not be seen as a U-turn. It is a practical solution to issues raised by the motor trade and transport industries and, if it goes ahead, will allow a small number of petrol and diesel vehicles to be sold, with carbon off-setting measures in place.
Despite political pledges to reverse bans on ICE vehicles, the future is electric and we are too far along the road to turn back.
The difference might be that current drivers of petrol and diesel vehicles hold on to them longer than planned and make the switch when they find the right EV at the right price.
